Cheltenham Open Meeting – Day 3 Selections

 

1:00 – Mallard Pawnbrokers And Family Jewellers Conditional Jockeys´ Handicap Hurdle (CLASS 3) (4yo+ 0-125)

A very tough start to the day where Lieutenant Miller is probably one of the more obvious ones considering the improved form he’s shown on the flat this season. Sausalito Sunrise has been well backed and Philip Hobbs feels he hasn’t shown his best yet.

Pay The King and Western Warhouse again should go close while Seebright may just come on for the run just like many other Dartnell horses this season. Pay The King also is interesting but I am chancing COPPER BIRCH who could just be worth a chance on this better ground.

He has yet to run on anything better than soft over here but won a PTP on good and just looks like he will improve a touch for it. His earlier form anyway, certainly when second to At Fishers Cross and then One Conemara entitles him to be a lot shorter than his price and a lot better than his mark. Give him a chance at 22/1.

Advice – Copper Birch 1pt e/w @22/1 generally

 

 

2:10 – Racing Post Arkle Trophy Trial Novices´ Chase (Registered As The November Novices´ Chase) (Grade 2) (CLASS 1) (4yo+)

Ted Veale summing up the gorgeous weather we were treated to at last season’s Festival

The next three races, all small field affairs, are all intriguing. The Arkle Trial is a particularly interesting race which sees Raya Star and Dodging Bullets try to build on debut wins over fences. Neither particularly impressed me there, especially Dodging Bullets whose jumping wasn’t brilliant.

Raya Star was more efficient but I don’t have him improving that much for fences. The jury is out on both so far and that leaves debutant TED VEALE who is consistently improving and has become one of the most versatile horses in training. He won the County Hurdle earlier in the year on soft ground but has won on faster and ran a cracker when last seen in the Ebor.

I just think he is a rapidly improving type who should take well enough to fences if his trainer’s comments are anything to go by and from a value perspective he is definitely the one to beat on.

I will have a single bet on him and also a small treble on THE LIQUIDATOR who I think should beat Sea Lord on these terms, the latter doesn’t convince too much with his jumping and this could finally find him out. Then in the Shloer, I’d be very surprised and disappointed if SIRE DE GRUGY couldn’t absolutely hack up as he’s a class above those lot.

Advice – Ted Veale 3pts win @7/2 Bet365

                Ted Veale/Sire De Grugy/The Liquidator 1.5pts win Treble @17.55/1

 

 

3:15 – StanJames.com Greatwood Hurdle (Handicap) (Grade 3) (CLASS 1) (4yo+)

This race rarely lets you down in terms of quality and again it is a very classy renewal. Cash And Go, second in this last year, is favourite though I’m still convinced he needs soft ground to be at his best. That may be a strange comment to some of you considering he won a Grade 1 on decent ground but that’s my opinion.

I can’t have him at the price he is considering he found one too good off this mark last year and the race is just as good and I certainly don’t know what to make of all this body building talk. Pine Creek won really well at Ascot, a race that was extremely warm on paper and he will go well off 7lb higher.

Thomas Edison is well fancied and has been shrewdly campaigned, while Fred Winter winner Flaxen Flare should run well with conditions to suit though I couldn’t say he was that well handicapped.

My main fancy for the race is IFANDBUTWHYNOT who went straight in the notebook after his run at Aintree, a race hardly franked by the winner last time but that’s another matter. He travelled really well that day and just seemed to need it, especially after he took a bad fall on his last start at Ayr in April.

I think he will be raring to go tomorrow for the top class David O’Meara and I see him running a big race. I have backed at 14/1 but 10/1 at the moment is still a decent price. Horse to follow COURT MINSTREL has to be backed at a track he won so well at last year and on ground that is what he wants.

If he can’t run a big race tomorrow then he simply isn’t worth following at all or just not good enough. He will love the test of this race though and a saver is advised. Elsewhere Kashmir Peak is an intriguing runner, even more intriguing is Dell’Arca but winning this first time out over here would be some achievement.

Sametegal is very similar to Brampour who won this two years ago and again he’s respected out of the many of his age running this year. At a bigger price Tanerko Emery can go well.

Already Advised – Ifandbutwhynot 2pts e/w @14/1 Stan James

Advice – Court Minstrel (Jumps Horses to follow List 2013/14) 1pt e/w @11/1 Stan James

 

 

Fairlawne – Festival Jockey Club Fine Dining Bumper (Standard Open NH Flat Race) (Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (4-6yo)

I love a good bumper and simply cannot wait for this race. Red Sherlock is rightly favourite though as he won a bumper at Ascot that could not be working out any better and he could well have grown and matured a good deal over the summer.They weren’t keen in throwing him in at the Festival and I like that decision.

Carningli won a bumper here last time where he stayed on well up the hill, a race that was boosted by The Govaness today. Champagne At Tara beat Assam Black last time and with that rival going in comfortably in the week, that also looks a smart performance.

Storm Of Swords put up close to the most impressive win of the lot over in Ireland and has now joined Dan Skelton after selling for £95,000. I just can’t work out whether he will need the run but at a guess I will say he will. The one I do like a good deal is NECK OR NOTHING.

The Irish bumper form is always very strong and the way he beat an okay field on debut was mightily impressive. Also add in that the trainer said he wasn’t close to full fitness then it makes the performance even better. I think he is one, unlike a few of these that is ready to win tomorrow and a decent 3pt win bet is advised at a fairly good price.

I certainly have him around the 9/2 mark and it is very interesting to note he actually sold yesterday to Mrs Brookhouse for £200,000. I can’t see Gunner Fifteen running after winning today though Fergal O’Brien’s other runner Arthur McBride ran a cracker on debut and it would not surprise me considering yard form especially, if he showed up well.

Southfield Vic wasn’t given the best of rides last time but I doubt he’d have won and he needs to improve. Charlie Longsdon has two good horses taking part in WADSWICK COURT and Our Kaempfer. The former beat smart dual subsequent hurdles winner and Champion Bumper sixth Purple Bay at Huntingdon last time.

Considering how keen he was that was a taking performance and the stronger pace will suit. He apparently likes softer ground but being by Court Cave, who notoriously prefer faster, he should be right at home tomorrow. Noel Fehily also chooses him over Our Kaempfer who won well on debut but already wants a hurdle for me where we will see the best out of him.

Advice – Neck Or Nothing 3pts win @8/1 generally

                  Wadswick Court 2pts win @9/1 generally

2013 Cesarewitch Handicap Antepost Preview

The Cesarewitch is always one of the most fascinating handicaps of the season for meas it brings together a lot of the strong stayers on the flat with the hurdlers and sometimes chasers, to make a huge field over the long straight of Newmarket’s Rowley Mile.

 

Aaim To Prosper came the first horse to win the race twice last year when getting the better of Countrywide Flame. Both are entered again this season

It’s impossible to get a winner for this on trends as the past 10 years has seen so many different winners of the race. Firstly in terms of age we’ve seen winners aged 3, in the case of Darley Sun, to 11 with Caracciola. Jumps trainers did particularly well from 2002-2008 with five winners but each of the last four winners have been handled by predominantly flat trainers.

 

In terms of weight, Aaim To Prosper won off 7-13 in 2010 but last year regained his crown (first horse ever to do that) off 9-10, the only thing that can be suggested through this is that you need a particular horse for the race. Other winners range from 8-00 (Miss Fara in 2002) to the brilliant Sergeant Cecil who took this along with the Ebor and Northumberland Plate in 2005 off 9-08.

 

There’s a real mix of flat types and hurdlers at the head of the market and the form of races such as the Ascot Stakes, Ebor and Northumberland Plate are as ever likely to be tested. The antepost favourite is Tiger Cliff who took the York feature and was runner-up to Well Sharp at the Royal meeting. He seems best fresh and did well to grind down the well handicapped Genzy on soft last time over 1m6f.

 

He shows he can handle big fields, any sort of ground too and will be suited by not running again until the race itself. That does mean though that from an antepost point of view, 8/1 seems a bit short for a race over a month away and though he’s a very likely winner, I can’t see him being much shorter than this if he does make it.

 

I mentioned Well Sharp too who hasn’t been seen since taking the Ascot Stakes over 2m4f and if making it he’d have a great chance as he’ll relish the test, even off 10lb higher and a mark of 105.

 

Plenty of hurdlers, especially from Ireland are near the head of the market, not least Domination who won the trial for the Cesarewitch last year off 77 but is now off 95. He was last seen on the flat finishing second to Edeymi at Galway and has since won twice in small hurdling events. He would be a fascinating runner.

 

Countrywide Flame’s hurdling antics is no secret to anybody, last season’s Fighting Fifth winner and Champion Hurdle third took his form over the timber to a new level last season. He finished a good second in this last year off 88 and also did not disgrace at all In the Chester Cup when fifth, beaten under two lengths.

 

Chester isn’t a course that plays to his strengths for me though he did win a trial there for this race last year a year ago this weekend and I would like to see him being planned for a prep run before backing him for this, but he’s certainly not out of it at all off just 4lb higher.

 

There’s more to come from Ted Veale who won at the Festival this year and has another big prize in him

Another horse who has made a name for himself over hurdles more than the flat is TED VEALE. This year’s County Hurdle winner also ran a cracker in the Ebor when last seen, just three days after he’d won a minor event at Bellewstown and he lost nothing in defeat, finishing a close fourth.

 

He travelled beautifully into the race before not finding as much off the bridle as what could have been possibly expected, with the quick return maybe taking its toll and also the trip being slightly on the sharper side.

 

He won the County on horrible ground but has shown he goes on anything and off 98 there’s definitely another big prize in him. He relishes these big fields and the 2m2f trip could see him come into his own. Trainer Tony Martin is a master in these sorts of races and has already taken the race with Leg Spinner back in 2007.

 

Nicky Henderson is also a past winner of this race, with Landing Light and Caracciola and the Champion National Hunt trainer has three entered this time, arguably led by Lieutenant Miller who has already had a successful flat campaign, winning at Doncaster and then placing in both the Ascot and Goodwood Stakes.

 

All The Aces has been running consistently to a mark of around 90 but doesn’t look the same horse who was once rated 25lb higher back in 2009 and Earth Amber, who finished second in the Further Flight before finishing down field in the Sagaro won by Gold Cup hero Estimate, hasn’t been seen since that run and has a bit to prove now.

 

Aaim To Prosper is entered again off top weight, this time 5lb higher than what he won off last year. He has been with Paul Nicholls since that win but his hurdling campaign never really took off and he’s now back with Brian Meehan.

 

The trainer has also entered St Bedivere but of far more interest is Great Hall, who is one of the more intriguing 3yos entered. He’s also entered in the Leger this weekend which could give him the potential to trade a lot shorter than his price at the moment.

 

His win last time is strong form and the headgear, which was declared when he was a n/r in the Melrose last month, could bring out more. He would be a fascinating runner if taking part.

 

Big Easy represents the same connections of Detroit City who won this in 2006 before going on to even bigger exploits over hurdles and though Big Easy is certainly not up to the level he was, Philip Hobbs still has a decent shot of another winner in the race. He hasn’t been seen since finishing eighth in the Ascot Stakes but never really got into the race and a mark of 90 is fair.

 

Other trainers to take this in the past are David Simcock who has Ray Ward this year, while Martin Pipe won this twice and son David has Mamlook entered but he hasn’t run for two years.

 

Broxbourne may not be done with her winning even though she is 41lb higher than her mark back in January

Mark Johnston has also taken the race before with Contact Dancer and he looks to have a major chance this year with the highly consistent filly BROXBOURNE. She has been an absolute revelation this season, winning seven times, the first off a mark of 53. She is now 41lb higher off 94 but is getting better and better. She won well at Ascot in July before taking the Goodwood Stakes over 2m5f just five days later and also coming very late to win a good race at York last month.

 

She was beaten both times in between that but there was excuses for both, firstly she was given a terrible ride at the Shergar Cup and then at Goodwood latest she ran a lot better than her finishing position suggested as the race wasn’t run to suit her at all. This strong stayer who relishes big field will find the Cesarewitch test absolutely ideal and I think her versatility will be such an asset in a race like this. 20/1 is a big price.

 

The trainer has entered Oriental Fox too who has promised to win a race of such kind, thus I have followed him of late but he finished a good fifth in the Ebor before flopping badly at Haydock this weekend. He wouldn’t be the first from this yard to bounce back with a bang though.

 

Party Line finished a good third at York last time, a race won by Broxbourne. He hit the front and looked all the way the winner before being caught by his stablemate and Mawaqeet, while Scatter Dice is the least likely of the quartet to feature heavily if at all. The Stoute horse would be of interest if the ground was on the faster side.

 

Mubaraza has done pretty well this season without winning but he seems to love Newmarket and should stay the trip well. He also showed he handles softer ground last time in the Northumberland Plate but he needs to show he is up to winning a race such as this.

 

Dermot Weld has Olympiad entered but he has flopped badly the last twice, notably in this last year and his other entrant Notable Graduate doesn’t tick many boxes.

 

Nichols Canyon is one of the more interesting 3yos as he’s better than he showed when beaten out of sight in the Voltigeur latest and he promises to be better than his mark of 98, meanwhile Camborne has a big ask off a mark of 108 but any rain would help his chances and he certainly hasn’t suggested he wouldn’t stay such a trip.

 

A few more worth talking about include Platinum who has wonderfully highlighted to talents of trainer Phil Kirby and won really well at Haydock at the weekend. You couldn’t rule out another bold run off a penalty and this is certainly the aim now.

Sir Mark Prescott has high hopes for the lightly raced Pallasator

 

Back in third was Pallasator, a big strapping horse having his first run of the season. He came off the bridle very early on but kept going until the line and the step back up in trip would be right up his street. He would need to travel better though.

 

They were split by Clowance Estate who I’ve liked for a while and this lightly raced gelding could well have more to offer stepping up in trip as even though his pedigree says otherwise, he looks all about stamina.

 

Homeric is talented but quirky, though is definitely better than what he showed at York last time, while Willie Mullins has very smart hurdle Drive Time entered but his flat form does not convince.

 

Mysterious Man ran a blinder in the Ascot Stakes when too free and got the win he’d threatened at Newmarket on his penultimate start. He ran okay at Salisbury last time but needs to prove he can run more consistently than he does, as the hood was what really made the difference when he won.

 

Tropical Beat looks one to follow off his mark for David O’Meara but has had to pull out twice now due to ground and other targets before this are likely to be on his radar, plus he has stamina doubts.

Shortlist:

Domination, Tiger Cliff, Broxbourne, Ted Veale, Pallasator, Mubaraza, Great Hall, Platinum, Mawaqeet, Party Line

 

Advice – Ted Veale 1.5pts e/w @14/1 Skybet

                 Broxbourne 1pt e/w @20/1 generally