Glorious Goodwood 2014 – Day 3 Selections

Just a short post (shorter than usual but sure I’ll go overboard) unfortunately. It’s a truly manic week and though I wanted to keep up with the promise of doing a blog each day for Goodwood, it’s a real struggle to do so. I will continue to post as regularly as I can here and will certainly continue the video blogs with Ontheotherhoof, though as mentioned before I will be joining the Huge Value Horses team, from Friday 1^st August and obviously concentration needs to put on that than on here.

I also just wanted to say thank you to so many people for the support you have given the blog, especially over the past year and for this flat season. Views are as high as they’ve ever been and your support is very much appreciated. If you are at all interested (certainly absolutely no pressure from me) then you can subscribe to Huge Value Horses HERE. This is an exciting new project for me and I can’t wait to see where it can go from here. Anyway to Goodwood Day 3, the first two days have been somewhat of a damp squib but tomorrow’s cards do not disappoint from a punting perspective.

 

Goodwood

2:05 – Fairmont Stakes (Handicap) (Bobis Race) (CLASS 2) (3yo)

A cracking Goodwood handicap to start with and no surprise to see Roseburg favourite as he’s a future group performer without any doubt and he can easily land a blow off this mark. All his wins have been on softer than this and that’s a worry. ASTRONEREUS took a real liking for soft ground last time at Newmarket and he really impressed that day. His 2^nd here behind a 90 rated stablemate was a good run and even if ideally he’d want rain, I really rate this horse and the 7/1 on offer is worth taking.

Rainbow Rock is 5lb out of the weights but Cam Hardie takes that off, he won well and goes off a penalty. Madeed was drawn on the wrong side in the Britannia and that has been a profitable system, of the outsiders Donny Rover appealed, his York run was mixing it with top horses and a return to 10f should suit.

Advice – Astronereus 3pts win @7/1 Paddy Power (Money Back Special)

 

 

2:35 – Qatar Bloodstock Richmond Stakes (Group 2) (Colts & Geldings) (CLASS 1) (2yo)

The smart Ivawood is expected to land the first race of Glorious Goodwood for Hannon and Hughes

The Hughes/Hannon combo are still awaiting their first winner this week but it’s likely to come in the shape of IVAWOOD who is extremely well regarded at home and has impressed considerably in his two starts to date. His debut performance was visually striking and he powered away from a fair field at Newmarket last time, including beating his main market rival Jungle Cat. He’s 4/9 but it’s very hard to see him beat. However MOONRAKER is a horse I rate very highly and I think he could give the favourite something to think about.

The Ascot maiden he won has worked out a treat and this Starspangledbanner colt has been seen since that performance and now is upped to an easy enough 6f. I would advised forecasts between the pair, staking more on the Hannon horse winning. Ahlan Emerati is a solid horse who should appreciate the return to 6f if turned out quickly while Fox Trotter beat a good horse on debut and is entitled to give this a go. Louie De Palma is a horse I like but maybe not for a test like this just yet.

Advice – Ivawood/Moonraker 2pts straight forecast, 1pt reverse forecast

 

 

3:10 – Artemis Goodwood Cup (British Champions Series) (Group 2) (CLASS 1) (3yo+)

Plenty of talk has been about Estimate for the wrong reasons of late and it would be nice to see her land this after such a good run in defence of her Ascot Gold Cup crown. She was just touched off that day and demands needed for tomorrow makes her vulnerable. She has an impressive Sagaro win to her name over this trip but her two best runs have been over the Gold Cup trip and with a potential lack of pace this may not be enough of a stamina test. That would also play into the hands of last year’s winner BROWN PANTHER especially on this ground. He took this readily last year in a slowly run affair and with similar likely tomorrow he is the clear one to beat from that point of view and on figures.

The 7/2 on him represents good value. Godolphin run both Cavalryman, sixth last year when not suited by how the race panned out and also Ahzeemah, who got closest to him in second. The latter is very much overpriced considering he may have needed his return in a good race over 14f and then didn’t see out the Gold Cup trip latest. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if last year’s 1-2 happened again but Ahzeemah’s well being is taken a bit on trust. The progressive Angel Gabrial is respected, as too Forgotten Voice but he has to settle and that would be a worry with a real lack of pace in the race.

Advice – Brown Panther 3pts win @7/2 generally

 

 

4:50 – Tatler Stakes (Handicap) (Bobis Race) (CLASS 2) (3yo 0-105)

A return to 7f on a tight track from a good draw should see Almargo go very close tomorrow

This is a really good handicap and just the type of race the first two days have lacked. Plenty at the head of the market have been on the radar, including Championship who is coming back to some decent form after clearly having problems. The step back to 7f wasn’t a positive for me. Secret Hint landed a good Doncaster maiden on his return and the 80-rated runner-up (well clear) has landed a race since. The draw makes it a bit tougher for him and he is 4lb out of the weights. The Johnston pair Ifwecan and ALMARGO have good low draws and if they don’t go too fast out in front, they will be very hard to catch.

It seems to me as if races over this distance have fallen apart up front at times and Almargo especially is ideally suited for that to happen. He’s unbeaten still in 7f handicaps, which includes wins at Epsom Derby meeting and also in a similarly strong race at Newcastle. This is clearly his ground and trip and on a track that has to suit him, he’s got to have a major chance. Royal Seal is another who will relish the return to 7f which has seemed to suit him the best thus far.

Advice – Almargo 3pts win @13/2 Bet365

Saturday’s Selections – 7th September

 

Ascot

3:00 – Nyetimber Hyperion Fillies´ Conditions Stakes (CLASS 2) (2yo)

A trappy little four runner Conditions stakes and nothing can be ruled out comfortably. Adhwaa just about sets the standard on her Sweet Solera fourth and may be able to dominate here while Casual Smile ran a strong race to finish second in what looked an above average Newmarket maiden, though the winner and fourth have been beaten since.

Hot Coffee is worth another chance after an average run in France last time but FEEDYAH was just ahead of her that day, though is a bigger price and promises to improve more for the step up to a mile. The stable have won both renewals of this race (under Al Zarooni) and her form is decent, a third behind Majeyda in a race where she got caught too far back. She is definite value at the odds.

Advice – Feedyah 2pts win @4/1 generally

 

 

 

3:30 – Ladbrokes Mobile Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (CLASS 2) (3yo)

Glenard has taken a while to come to hand but has a good chance of landing another big prize here

This is a very good race with plenty of highly progressive 3yo handicappers taking part and something will have to be very well handicap to win this. CAFÉ SOCIETY could be just that and thouh his price is not the greatest, he definitely deserves to be favourite. It was staggering how he didn’t win his last start after travelling all over the field before leaving it too late to catch the eventual winner. He’s been off for two months or so and a bigger field will suit this time plus you get the suspicion he could have improved a good deal again since that.

The Johnston pair of Special Meaning and Royal Skies must be respected though I’m less keen on Goodwood Mirage and Dare To Achieve who has been disappointing this season. However I can’t ignore GLENARD who has taken a while to come to hand but has taken his form to another level for the step up in trip and this could really suit.

I feel like he has been campaigned with a big race in mind and he can add to the good little prize at Haydock he took last time from Renew. A stronger pace will definitely suit here and hopefully there’s more to come, especially if he doesn’t hold his head high late on.

Advice – Cafe Society 3pts win @9/2 generally

                 Glenard 1pt e/w @14/1 888sport

 

 

4:05 – Wondering Wine Company Nursery Handicap (CLASS 2) (2yo)

I’ve been waiting to back IFWECAN for a while and the step back to 5f in a race where he can dominate proceedings is the ideal race for him to strike in. He ran a big race at Goodwood two starts back when only a length behind Flying Bear but he was value to be closer considering everything closed on him and the trip plus a 3lb pull going his way means he deserves to be favourite. Steventon Star is having his first run since being gelded but has disappointed after showing good early season form and the rest have it to find.

Advice – Ifwecan 2pts win @10/3 Sporting Bet

 

 

 

Haydock

2:05 – Betfred Mobile Be Friendly Handicap (CLASS 2) (3yo+ 0-100)

Though the conditions are unproven for him, after the return run of ROCKY GROUND I have the strong suspicion he has a big handicap in him. Whether it’s today is uncertain as the trip may not particularly be a positive either but the fact he stays in the race and has a very eyecatching booking in Ryan Moore I think he’s worth the risk.

There’s nothing I’d be too wary of, Above Standard probably deserves to be up the head of the market and Harrison George may find this too sharp. I can’t see Normal Equilibrium being well treated enough and would rather look at Confessional, Jedward or Racy.

Advice – Rocky Ground 2pts win @8/1 generally

 

 

3:15 – Betfred “Goals Galore” Old Borough Cup (Handicap) (CLASS 2) (3yo+ 0-105)

Pallasator is desperately short considering he hasn’t been seen for a year but he must have been showing a lot at home to be considering for this first time out and to be a clear favourite. Poyle Thomas should relish this extra furlong though slower conditions are unproven and that is certainly not a problem for ORIENTAL FOX who has run some big races in defeat and this could be his time to get his head in front.

The ground is ideal for Oriental Fox to run another big race here

His second in the Northumberland Plate, a very unlucky third on Shergar Cup day and a good fifth in the Ebor suggests he can run up to or better than a mark of 100. Mark Johnston has won this four times in the last ten years and he has a big chance of making that five with Scatter Dice also taking part for the yard.

Cousin Khee is an interesting one if taking to the ground while Platinum and Kiama Bay are in superb form and cannot be ruled out again. Suraj is too risky and a couple I backed last time out, Clowance Estate and Wyborne are being left this time. The former lost nothing in defeat at Newmarket while the latter pulled far too hard at York and is better than that.

Advice – Oriental Fox 2pts win @10/1 generally

 

 

3:50 – Betfred Sprint Cup (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (CLASS 1) (3yo+)

With no Reckless Abandon, my main bet of the race is void while the ground may have gone against his stablemate Lethal Force who is definitely vulnerable on it but is clearly the best horse by some distance.

The ground will suit Gordon Lord Byron who finished second in this last year too and though it will suit Garswood too I don’t think he will be good enough over this trip. Instead SLADE POWER gets his chance to get a Group 1. He’s improved rapidly this season, has run well on soft ground this season and if not messing up the start, this test is right up his street.

5f was too stiff for him last time in the Nunthorpe while plans to help him in the stalls could well work the oracle today. On his close third in the July Cup he has a massive chance. I don’t like Rex Imperator on soft while the rest have a good deal to find, Swiss Spirit possibly being overlooked and certainly Intense Pink if it’s really testing.

Advice – Slade Power 2pts win @9/1 generally

 

 

 

Kempton

4:10 – totepool.com Sirenia Stakes (Group 3) (CLASS 1) (2yo)

This may not take too much winning and even with a 3lb penalty Brown Sugar has to be respected. Godolphin have a big chance with the strong travelling Brave Boy but slight preference is for HOT STREAK who is trying to keep his unbeaten record intact after two impressive wins.

I loved his debut performance and then he took a good Listed race over 5f last time over C&D where they went too quick up front and he picked up the pieces. He also travels strongly in his races and will need to do so from a wide draw but I can see him being held up and then coming on for a strong run. Hopefully Mr Spencer can get this one home.

Advice – Hot Streak 2pts win @10/3 generally

 

 

Leopardstown

6:50 – Red Mills Irish Champion Stakes (Group 1) (3yo+)

The first three from the Juddmonte meet again but on markedly different ground

A race that has a considerably different look to it after the heavens opened, with AL KAZEEM now clear favourite considering he is the only one who didn’t want fast ground. I have been a huge fan of this horse this season as he’s done nothing wrong in winning three Group 1’s on the bounce.

He again ran okay for third in the Juddmonte but the track really didn’t suit his style and the ground was a little too quick as well, he definitely looked after himself late on. Declaration Of War won that day in good style but got a great ride by Joseph O’Brien and hass shown already he doesn’t pick up as well on soft.

The same can be said for Yorkshire Oaks winner The Fugue meaning that Trading Leather is value to beat them both. This consistent performer has run some big races this season but is arguably a touch better over 12f. Kingsbarns is the intriguing one here, not seen since an impressive winner of the Racing Post Trophy last season and it would be some performance if he were to win this on his return. It’s very much a watching brief with him while the other three would be surprise winners.

Advice – Al Kazeem 3pts win @5/2 generally

 

 

Thirsk

3:40 – Personal Touches Handicap (CLASS 3) (3yo 0-95)

This is a great chancer for EQUITY RISK to go one better after a great effort at York latest. He simply bumped into a very well handicapped horse in Short Squeeze but had the rest well strung out and similar conditions here of a mile on soft ground can see him win off 3lb higher in what is a weaker race. The 3/1 is still just available and that for me is pretty fair as I’m not scared about anything in the field beating him if he runs to form.

Advice – Equity Risk 2pts win @3/1 Betfred

York Ebor Festival 2013 – Day 1

Just two bets altogether for Day one of York but I will do a quick recap of all the other races.

It’s firstly worth looking at the feature Juddmonte International which sees a quite fascinating match up between Toronado and Al Kazeem. The latter has been quite superb this year in taking both the Prince of Wales and Eclipse, with a nice little break since his Sandown win he should be ready and firing again.

The former meanwhile steps up to 10f for the first time after beating Dawn Approach in the Sussex three weeks ago. His pedigree suggests it will suit him but for one with such speed, the jury is out for me on whether he can necessarily improve for the trip at this stage. I do think Al Kazeem can outstay him here and with his price drifting I am very tempted to have a bet. I have decided that if 6/4 is on offer then I will back Roger Charlton’s colt.

Al Kazeem is looking to land a famous middle distance treble of the Prince Of Wales, Eclipse and the Juddmonte International

It’s no two horse race though with Irish Derby winner Trading Leather taking place and he cannot be discounted, especially from a pace angle. My only worry is whether he is as good over 10f. Hillstar finished just behind him in the King George last time but came off a very strong pace which the Bolger horse had kept close tabs with throughout.

It’s interesting to see Declaration Of War running again as connections had stated he wouldn’t return to this sort of trip again, and though he gets his preferred ground, the suggestion is he is below the standard set by the front two, as what has looked the case when behind both in different races the last twice.

 

The opening 5f handicap is a trappy event where I couldn’t really find anything I wanted to support. I backed Bogart last time and he was very unlucky when Amy Ryan’s saddle slipped and she unseated, but I only backed that day as he was running over 6f and he now returns to 5f. I can see something coming off the pace to win it as there’s plenty of it and Above Standard definitely appealed the most but he is short enough at single figures.

 

The Acomb is a tough race to find the winner of as there’s a few good maiden winners clashing. The main one was here over 6f when The Grey Gatsby beat Brazos, himself going in since at Glorious Goodwood. Kevin Ryan’s colt was very green that day and the step up in trip is sure to suit. I think he’s got a big chance but certainly won’t be backing at the price he is. First Flight impressed on debut at Newbury when overcoming inexperience and Il Paparazzi looked better value than both of those and his maiden win is working out well but the front two are definitely the most likely winners. Treaty Of Paris and Lady Lara are more experienced but don’t have good enough form to feature here.

 

I also had a look at the 6f Nursery which ends the card. I noted that many of the past winners had plenty of experience on their side coming into this (three runs at an absolute minimum) and that is a negative for many of the market leaders. One that I did like was Ifwecan but I hate backing Johnston horses at York. Goodwood winner Flying Bear appealed the most but not enough to back

 

 

3:05 – Neptune Investment Management Great Voltigeur Stakes (Group 2) (Colts & Geldings) (CLASS 1) (3yo)

The Gordon Stakes form is impossible to take literally and Secret Number is well worth another chance to show he’s the best of the lot

Telescope has of course always been very well regarded, so much that he was very well supported for some of the top races around this season. However he disappointed to some measure when only second in the Rose Of Lancaster, beaten by David Livingston and has a bit to prove to meet that lofty reputation.

There is time on his side though and you get the suspicion he could well fulfill it one day for such a respected trainer, while 12f could well see a better performance too and in this field he has to be taken very seriously. I’m certainly not backing him at pretty short odds.

The Gordon Stakes form is tested again and you can wipe the slate clean of the result after what was a farce of a race. They went a very slow gallop while at least three horses looked unfortunate in running.

Cap O’Rushes won that day but SECRET NUMBER travelled the best in the race and despite hitting a bit of a flat spot when getting the space, he was then hampered badly by Spillway when challenging for a run late on. I believe he is the best of the trio coming into this as his Meydan form was strong too and he’s also better than his Dante run where he only finished seventh on his return to the UK. I have backed him antepost for the Leger and so I hope he wins tomorrow too.

Nothing in this can be fully discounted with impressive debut winner Foundry leading the rest as we simply don’t know how good he could be. This is a his first run since that five length win in November but he’s in very good hands and looks all the way a middle distance type.

Nichols Canyon has a little bit to find on the best of these while it remains to be seen if Willie The Whipper was flattered by his sixth in the French Derby but if he wasn’t then he is also entitled to respect.

Advice – Secret Number 3pts win @5/1 Generally

 

 

4:20 – Lanstone Building Conservation Stakes (Handicap) (CLASS 2) (4yo+ 0-100)

Broxbourne won well at Ascot last month, form of which will be well tested here with Homeric and Mawaqeet reopposing again

Again it’s tough to back Mark Johnston horses in these sorts of races but take it out of account and he has a big chance with Broxbourne and Party Line, both who have been in good form of late. Homeric got a wonderful ride at the Shergar Cup last time but may not be done winning and he is the most likely one to take this for me.

Flashman has been very consistent this season and deserved to get his head in front last time. This requires more though while Willie Wag Tail doesn’t scream out at wanting this trip for me.

One of the main form lines to be tested is the one over C&D last month, a race won from the front by Eagle Rock who has since run third behind a pair of progressive types at Newmarket. He should run well again.

Mawaqeet made up plenty of ground from the back to finish second but look uninterested last time when last behind Broxbourne at Ascot and has it to prove now.

There’s a few that finished even further back and one that caught the eye the most was Brian Ellison’s WYBORNE who was given far too much to do from right out the back and despite travelling to the front, it told as he faded into fifth. A more efficient ride could hopefully see him stay the trip better while he’s still pretty lightly raced so could have more to offer too.

Just behind him was All The Aces who since has run Flashman close and he has a solid e/w chance again, while Jonny Delta looked a little unlucky in that race when hampered late on and can do better, but he was well behind Party Line two weeks ago anyway.

Further behind was the veteran Blue Bajan who is past his best now. Suraj could run well over this trip but I didn’t like the way he ran in snatches at Goodwood latest while Martin Chuzzlewit and Noble Silk certainly lead the rest as both promise to improve for the step up in trip.

Advice – Wyborne 1.5pts e/w @12/1 Paddy Power